Bitcoin remains a buy on dips despite oil risks says Hilbert CIO

Bitcoin remained near the lower end of its recent trading range Monday as inflation concerns, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and the Middle East conflict continued to weigh on sentiment.

The largest crypto asset by market cap last traded near $82,400, down about 1.5% over 24 hours. Since rallying toward $87,000 on September 21, Bitcoin has spent much of the past three weeks between roughly $82,000 and $87,000, with brief moves outside that band, including last week’s decline toward $80,000.

Its recovery from that selloff has kept the broader consolidation intact. But with Bitcoin back below $83,000, buyers still need to reclaim a level that has repeatedly served as support during the period.

“I would say right now Bitcoin is a buy on dips,” Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at digital asset investment firm Hilbert Group, said in commentary shared with Crypto Briefing.

Thompson identified initial support at $80,000 to $81,000, followed by trend line support around $77,000. He cautioned that the seven day and 21 day moving average crossover tracked by his team had turned bearish, while options positioning pointed to a maximum pain level around $78,000.

“The market needs to break out of its range, the top of which is just above 87,000,” he said. “A material daily close above that could open a move to somewhere around 93,000 to 97,000.”

ETF demand cools as liquidations hit both sides

The consolidation has followed a strong burst of ETF buying that has since weakened.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $2.33 billion in net inflows between September 21 and September 30, according to a Crypto Briefing calculation of Farside Investors data. Almost $1 billion arrived on September 21 alone, followed by another $714.7 million the next day.

That demand reversed in early October. The funds recorded approximately $386.3 million in net outflows across the first seven trading sessions of the month through October 9. 

Last week alone accounted for $678.9 million in net redemptions, including $484.9 million on October 7 and $244.1 million on October 8. A modest $21.1 million inflow on Friday interrupted that selling. 

Leverage has also amplified moves in both directions. The September 21 rally coincided with nearly $919 million in crypto short liquidations over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data. 

By September 29, roughly $500 million in leveraged crypto positions had been liquidated over a separate 24 hour period as Bitcoin slipped below $83,000. 

Selling intensified again last week. CoinGlass data showed about $1.12 billion in marketwide liquidations over 24 hours on October 8, including $1.04 billion in long positions. Bitcoin accounted for approximately $286 million of the total.

While that selloff largely flushed out longs, short positions could come under pressure if Bitcoin recovers. CoinGlass’s Binance Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows a notable cluster around $84,300. 

A move through that area could force shorts to close and add momentum to a rebound. With Bitcoin below $83,000 at press time, however, reclaiming that level remains the nearer test.

Sentiment has cooled alongside prices. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 55 at press time, in neutral territory, compared with a reading of 69 reported on October 2.

Oil risks complicate Bitcoin’s recovery

The Middle East conflict remains a source of pressure as threats to energy infrastructure and shipping routes keep inflation risks in focus. Bitcoin’s October 8 decline coincided with Brent crude moving back above $102 a barrel and Treasury yields rising.

In comments shared with Crypto Briefing, Thompson warned that Saudi Arabia’s growing involvement was widening the conflict.

“I don’t expect any meaningful pullback in oil unless a deal emerges in the Middle East,” he said.

For Bitcoin, persistent energy pressure complicates the inflation outlook and the prospect of easier monetary policy. Thompson said recent Fed minutes and futures pricing pointed toward renewed tightening rather than an imminent cut.

Bitcoin has so far absorbed those pressures without sustaining a break below its broader consolidation. For buyers, the immediate challenge is to recover $83,000 and rebuild momentum toward $84,300. A sustained move above $87,000 would offer a clearer signal that the three week range is ending.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.