Bitcoin open interest nears $23B as analyst warns of BTC price euphoria

Bitcoin needs a stronger breakout to secure a “multi-month long uptrend,” according to one analyst.

In his latest X content on Oct. 29, trader and ex-fund manager Aksel Kibar cautioned on overly bullish BTC price sentiment.

Kibar: BTC price resistance looms for October

Bitcoin (BTC) may be attacking resistance near all-time highs, but for some, BTC/USD still has some convincing to do.

Market strength is already making traders blind to risk, Kibar suggests.

“Everyone is trying to force their positions with their analysis,” he said, uploading a monthly chart. 

“Markets do not care about our analysis or position. You step to the line and take what generates a signal for you.”

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

Analyzing long-term price action, Kibar said that monthly candle closes above $73,700 were needed to confirm a reliable BTC price breakout. “I’m waiting for that monthly breakout, the way I did on GOLD. Because that will start a multi-month long uptrend from current levels,” he concluded, referencing gold’s year-to-date performance.

“October is possibly closing at the horizontal resistance. Let's see what November brings in terms of candle size.”

The post referenced earlier analysis from September, which nonetheless described BTC/USD pressuring all-time high resistance as “super bullish.”

“I’m not a bull or bear. I’m trying to read the price chart for possible advantage I can gain from price action,” he said in part of another post on the day.

“I can say this with confidence, any (knee-jerk) resistance I get in a post to a bullish setup is because that person missed the pullback and hoping for lower levels to get on board.”

Bitcoin open interest sparks mixed emotions

Other market commentators expressed concern over mushrooming open interest (OI) across trading venues.

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“Risk management should be thorough,” Crypto_Lion, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, advised in one of its Quicktake blog posts on the day.

Bitcoin open interest. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data estimated OI at about $22.7 billion at the time of writing. Reacting on X, fellow contributor Axel Adler Jr. said that roughly 50% of the tally was “held by bears.”

“There’s no need to hesitate in liquidating them to drive the price up,” he said.

Bitcoin futures liquidations chart. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.