Bitcoin Just Entered ‘Structural’ Bear Market: What Does It Mean and What’s Next?

We will also review the main reasons behind BTC's 25% drop since October, according to analysts.

Bitcoin’s price dumped once again on Sunday afternoon to a new six-month low of $93,000. On the surface, the reasoning behind the latest crash is quite slim, as there aren’t any significant catalysts that can be blamed.

However, the analysts from the Kobeissi Letter believe there’s a more profound and fundamental shift in the cryptocurrency market, and explained why a new type of ‘structural’ bear cycle has begun.

Why Such Big Moves?

Before we head into the explanation of this sort of bear market, first, we need to examine the analysts’ culprits for the overall market calamity. After all, BTC has lost 25% since its early October all-time high, and now sits at six-month lows of $95,000 after the Sunday dip. As they admitted, this decline is particularly “strange for one key reason.”

“There haven’t been many material bearish developments on the fundamental side of crypto. Just days ago, President Trump said America being “number one in crypto” is his top priority.”

Additionally, inflation in the US is gradually declining, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates again, and Washington and Beijing are close to a trade deal. As a result, the landscape now appears a lot more bullish than it did in April, for example.

Consequently, the analysts categorized the current downturn as “structural and mechanical.” They noted that it began with institutional outflows in mid-to-late October, which is evident from the ETF numbers. In the first week of November, crypto-focused funds experienced $1.2 billion in net outflows, marking a record.

However, where it gets particularly tricky in crypto is the excessive levels of leverage used during these institutional outflows, the Kobeissi Letter explained.

As a result, when these sudden downswings happen in crypto, liquidations surge.

As seen on October 10th, the -$19.2 billion liquidation spree led to the first ever $20,000 BTC daily candlestick.

Excessive levels of leverage have resulted in a seemingly hypersensitive market. pic.twitter.com/oJtnYQNQTm

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 16, 2025

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What’s Next?

The post added that 3 out of the last 16 trading days have seen liquidations skyrocketing to over $1 billion. Moreover, the analysts noted that daily liquidations of more than $500 million have become an everyday occurrence. As such, they indicated that when this is combined with ‘thin’ volume, the price swings in either direction become violent.

This also explains the massive shift in market sentiment. As reported over the weekend, the Fear and Greed Index has gone to its lowest levels since February, even though BTC is up by 25% since the April bottom.

“Leverage is amplifying shifts in investor sentiment,” the analysts said.

Nevertheless, the team concluded that the fundamental value of the cryptocurrency market has only improved. They predicted that the bottom is near, as these wrinkles “will work their way out.”

Therefore, when you really zoom out, it seems that crypto is in a “structural” bear market.

The fundamental value of crypto has only improved, but market dynamics are shifting.

As with any efficient market, the wrinkles will work their way out.

We think the bottom is near. pic.twitter.com/ra2QaFwoHy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 16, 2025