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Key takeaways:
Fed interest-rate cut odds this week are now less than 3%, according to Polymarket.
BTC price may drop as low as $112,000 if key support levels are broken.
Bitcoin (BTC) price remained flat on Wednesday at $118,200, as traders adopted a wait-and-see approach amid growing macro uncertainty.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView97% chance interest rates unchanged
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting started on Tuesday with the policy decision on the interest rate expected on Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET.
Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged, despite pressure from President Donald Trump to lower rates.
Related: Bitcoin momentum loss is pre-FOMC derisking, not a trend change
Polymarket sees a 97.5% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, and just a 2.3% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.
Interest rate expectations. Source: PolymarketA common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.
Traders appeared to “panic sell” on Tuesday as uncertainty grew around Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the meeting, said crypto investor TedPillows.
“People likely dumped their bags in fear. But they’ll probably end up FOMO buying back in at higher prices after the Fed speaks,” the analyst added, explaining that it is a familiar pattern that has historically preceded strong moves in August.
“Then August hits, everything goes parabolic. And the sidelined traders? They end up chasing, again.”Therefore, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there is any shift in tone.
“Investors will be listening very carefully to the Fed chair, and a dovish posture can influence the market,” said markets commentator James DePorre in an X post on Wednesday.
“The cut matters, but Powell’s words at the press conference are more important,” OptionsTrading101 told their X followers on Tuesday.
Traders are also looking to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, as well as a number of Trump tariff deadlines and how they will impact the crypto market.
What’s next for Bitcoin price?
Currently, $120,000 is the key level traders are watching for Bitcoin. Multiple analysts said that a high volume push through above this resistance opens the door for a swift move to fresh all-time highs.
“A confirmed breakout beyond this zone could shift market dynamics, bringing the $141K region into focus,” Glassnode said in its latest “Week Onchain” report.
The $141,000 level matches two standard deviations above the STH realized price. As shown in the chart below.
Glassnode added:
“This is an area where key onchain metrics suggest profit-taking could sharply intensify.”
Bitcoin short-term cost basis bands. Source: GlassnodeAnother level to watch is $125,000, which represents the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation higher.
On the downside, traders should keep an eye on Bitcoin’s STH cost basis at $105,400 and the yearly open around $93,000, which appears to coincide with the STH cost basis pushed one standard deviation lower.
A chart shared by popular analyst Killa suggests $114,000-$116,000 as a key area of interest, as the BTC price could drop below it to fill the fair gap value to $112,000 before recovering.
— Killa (@KillaXBT) July 30, 2025Similarly, SuperBitcoinBro, an anonymous BTC analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin could sweep down to as low as $112,000 first before a “squeeze higher” with the next major liquidity cluster between $119,800 and $121,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: SuperBitcoinBroNebraskangooner, another Bitcoin analyst, said that the BTC price will remain in range “until Powell speaks to make a big move.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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