Bitcoin Bottom or Bull Trap? 30,000 Wallets Exit as $72,500 Risk Grows

TLDR:

• Santiment counted 59.95 million non-empty Bitcoin addresses on October 26, down 30,000 since October 16.
• BTC touched $79,332 on Monday before trading near $80,000, with resistance marked at $82,000–$82,500.
• Ali Martinez flagged a four-hour channel breakdown, identifying $72,500 as a potential buying area for BTC.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on October 22 and $137.9 million on October 23, Farside said.

Bitcoin’s loss of 30,000 funded wallets has created a market paradox, as declining retail participation coincides with mounting warnings of another selloff. Consequently, the contrasting signals raise questions about whether investors are witnessing seller exhaustion that could establish a market bottom or continued weakness pointing to further losses.

Santiment reported October 26 that Bitcoin had approximately 59.95 million non-empty addresses, down 30,000 since October 16. Its findings suggest discouraged smaller holders may be withdrawing after prolonged stagnation. The count measures funded blockchain addresses, rather than individuals, making it an indirect indicator of shifts in retail behavior.

Yet BTC traded near $80,000 on Monday after touching roughly $79,332. That decline leaves price analysis confronting two competing readings: seller exhaustion and a weakening technical structure. BTC must also contend with resistance around $82,000, while another chart assessment identifies a buying area substantially lower.

30,000 Bitcoin Wallets Lost as $80,000 Bottom Faces Test

Santiment describes shrinking retail participation as a potential contrarian signal. Historically, recoveries can follow periods when impatient holders abandon positions, reducing speculative enthusiasm. However, a wallet is not an investor.

One person may control several addresses, meaning Bitcoin address losses cannot establish precisely how many people sold. Santiment’s October 9 price analysis showed the opposite trend.

At that point, addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC were increasing despite weaker markets. The firm then viewed continued retail buying as an obstacle to recovery. By October 26, its price analysis highlighted falling wallet numbers instead. For BTC, the immediate reference is $80,000.

Stabilization there, followed by a move beyond $82,500, would strengthen the firm’s proposed bottoming interpretation. Conversely, a sustained break below $79,000 would leave that interpretation unsupported. Bitcoin still needs observable buying demand rather than address counts alone.

BTC Channel Breakdown Puts $72,500 in Focus Amid ETF Outflows

Beyond the on-chain signals, technical indicators reinforce concerns about further downside. Ali Martinez’s price analysis shows BTC breaking below a rising channel on the four-hour chart, disrupting its previous pattern of higher lows.

Consequently, Martinez identifies $82,000 as resistance and $72,500 as a potential buying area, approximately 9% below Monday’s Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, institutional positioning adds another dimension to the market’s uncertainty.

Glassnode reported on October 21 that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders had an average entry price near $81,500. Corporate treasuries, by comparison, held an average purchase price around $80,200.

Furthermore, Glassnode’s price analysis identified the True Market Mean near $77,600, providing another reference below $80,000 without confirming further losses. Recent institutional flows also highlight the challenges facing a sustained recovery.

According to Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in outflows on October 22, followed by another $137.9 million on October 23. Against this backdrop, BTC price analysis centers on reclaiming $82,000–$82,500 or extending losses below $79,000.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision presents another near-term market catalyst. Until resistance is reclaimed, this price analysis leaves Bitcoin without a confirmed bottom, while BTC remains exposed to the lower support levels identified by analysts.

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