Bitcoin Below $100K: Key Factors Holding BTC Back and Potential Risks

Bitcoin’s price recovered from the most substantial declines earlier this week that drove it to a monthly low but still struggles to return to six-digit territory.

With the weekly close just hours away, here are the potential risks the cryptocurrency faces if it remains under this coveted level.

BTC to Close Below $100K?

The last couple of weeks of 2024 were quite painful for BTC as its price dumped from its latest all-time high registered on December 17 of over $108,000 to $91,300 in days. The latter came on December 30 and marked the asset’s lowest price point in over a month.

However, bitcoin reacted well to this correction and now sits above $98,000. This represents a 7.5% increase since that low. On a weekly scale, BTC is up by 3.5% compared to the valuation last Sunday.

Perhaps the biggest factor holding bitcoin below $100,000 now is the ‘stiff supply wall’ that appears in its current levels. This means that a lot of investors have accumulated their BTC holdings at prices between $98,000 and $100,000, which essentially turns these levels into critical resistance lines, according to Ali Martinez.

#Bitcoin $BTC faces a stiff supply wall between $98,000 and $100,000 that is currently acting as resistance! pic.twitter.com/GrDNNATLgT

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 4, 2025

On the plus side, the same analyst outlined a highly bullish development for BTC, which occurred at the end of 2024. More than 48,000 BTC (valued at $4.7 billion at today’s prices) were withdrawn from exchanges, thus reducing the immediate sell pressure.

Over 48,000 #Bitcoin $BTC have been pulled from exchanges in the past week, valued at over $4.5 billion! pic.twitter.com/V1agc0EtCe

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 3, 2025

Where to Next?

Martinez believes BTC might retest the 50-day moving average, which is currently at just under $97,000. Although bitcoin is currently above that level, it needs to close there, which will be “essential to signal the end of the correction and confirm bullish momentum.”

#Bitcoin $BTC remains at a critical point. This might just be a retest of the 50-day MA before a potential move lower. A sustained close above the 50-day MA is essential to signal the end of the correction and confirm bullish momentum. pic.twitter.com/ppfEjfoJkc

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 3, 2025

The analyst told his over 100,000 followers on X that he remains ‘cautiously bullish’ because the cryptocurrency could be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that might lead to an even more violent decline to $78,000. In his latest post, Martinez highlighted that BTC has to close above $100,000 to invalidate this bearish setup, which is currently not the case.

I’m cautiously bullish because for all we know, #Bitcoin $BTC could be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that anticipates a correction to at least $78,000. This is why a strong close above $100,000 is crucial to invalidate this bearish setup. pic.twitter.com/2O1y3sEWgq

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 4, 2025