Bessent told Siluanov on G20 sidelines: no deals with Russia possible until war ends – source

On the sidelines of the G20 summit, Bessent reportedly informed Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov that no economic deals with Russia would be feasible until the ongoing war with Ukraine concludes. This statement underscores the continued geopolitical tensions and economic isolation faced by Russia due to its military actions. The conversation between Bessent and Siluanov highlights the broader reluctance of international actors to engage with Russia until a resolution to the conflict is reached.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, having begun with Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, remains active with no ceasefire in sight. This dialogue comes as diplomatic contacts are limited, with Russian officials persistently rejecting ceasefire terms. The market for a potential ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026 has seen fluctuating odds, reflecting the volatile nature of the conflict and diplomatic efforts.

Key Takeaways

• Bessent’s statement to Siluanov appears to reinforce the international stance against dealing with Russia amid the ongoing conflict.
• Market pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026, currently at 19.5% YES.
• Continued military actions and diplomatic standoffs are consistent with scenarios where market participants see a lower chance of a ceasefire.

What to Watch

Observers will focus on any shifts in diplomatic interactions that could indicate progress towards a ceasefire. Key actors like U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may drive developments with significant announcements. Any unexpected diplomatic engagements or military escalations could influence market perceptions of a potential ceasefire agreement. The geopolitical landscape remains dynamic, and market participants will likely respond to any new indicators of peace talks or escalations.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.