Bank of Canada December rate hike chances drop after jobs report

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Swaps data indicates that the probability of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates in December has decreased to about 32% from a previous 40%, following the latest jobs report. The report from Statistics Canada showed a rise in unemployment and minimal changes in employment, influencing market sentiment. This development comes after the Bank of Canada recently raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in October, marking the first increase since July 2023.

Key Takeaways

• Swaps data suggests a decrease in the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate hike in December, now at 32%.
• The latest jobs report, showing rising unemployment, appears to have influenced market expectations, reducing rate hike probability.
• The Bank of Canada’s recent rate increase in October was the first since July 2023, highlighting their cautious approach.

What to Watch

Upcoming economic indicators, such as inflation and GDP data, could further influence rate hike expectations. Comments from Bank of Canada officials, especially Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, may provide additional insights into future policy directions. The next interest rate announcement on December 9 will be crucial in determining the bank’s stance on rate adjustments.