Arm-based servers lead 4Q26 growth as Nvidia faces supply constraints

Arm-based servers are projected to drive growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, as Nvidia faces supply constraints with its Vera Rubin AI-server platform. Reports from DigiTimes Asia indicate that Arm-based servers have gained a significant market share among hyperscalers, surpassing 50% in 2025 and potentially climbing above 60% by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s Vera Rubin systems, which began production shipments in August 2026, are experiencing supply issues due to memory and data-center capacity constraints, impacting their availability. This situation suggests that Arm’s growth is bolstered by both increased adoption and Nvidia’s supply challenges, rather than a decline in demand for AI infrastructure.

Key Takeaways

• Market behavior suggests that Nvidia’s supply constraints may impact its ability to meet demand, potentially affecting confidence in its share price targets.
• Arm-based servers are expected to continue gaining market share, driven by both heightened adoption among hyperscalers and Nvidia’s supply issues.
• Current market pricing indicates a lower probability of Nvidia reaching its high price targets in November, with YES outcomes seeing a significant decline.

What to Watch

Markets will be monitoring Nvidia’s ability to overcome supply constraints and deliver Vera Rubin systems to meet demand. Key actors, including Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang, may provide updates that could influence market sentiment. Additionally, any changes in hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure could further impact market expectations. Developments in these areas would be consistent with either an improvement or further decline in Nvidia’s stock price targets for November.