Another major hurricane is approaching Florida, one of the most rapidly intensifying on record

Hurricane Milton strengthened into a Category 5 storm today, becoming one of the most rapidly intensifying storms ever in the history of the Atlantic hurricane season. 

It’s likely within the top three fastest storms on record when it comes to rapid intensification, used to describe tropical cyclones with sustained wind speeds that increase by at least 30 knots (roughly 35 miles per hour) in a 24-hour period. Milton has seen an 80-knot increase in wind speed (more than 92 miles per hour) over 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said this morning.

“This is almost like three times the threshold that is used. So, yeah, this is definitely off the charts,” Karthik Balaguru, a climate scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, says. Only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007 have strengthened more rapidly than that, the NHC says.

Rapid intensification is becoming a bigger risk with climate change. Storms that gain strength that quickly can give communities less time to prepare. Milton is headed toward the west coast of Florida, where many residents are still recovering from Hurricane Helene’s wrath.

Milton’s sustained winds were estimated to be as high as 160 miles per hour by 11:55AM ET on Monday, October 7th, according to data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters aircraft. That puts it in the strongest category of storms — Category 5 — according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Wind speeds had reached a whopping 175mph by the NHC’s next update at 2PM ET. Milton has also managed to strengthen from a Category 1 to Category 5 storm at the second-fastest rate on record for the Atlantic, tying Hurricane Maria.

Hurricanes draw strength from heat energy at the surface of the sea. Unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico helped supercharge Milton, as they did for Helene less than two weeks ago. Both storms rapidly intensified as they approached shore, benefitting from low wind shear that might otherwise tear a storm apart before it strengthens.

Climate change is priming the planet for more rapidly intensifying storms, Balaguru has found in his research. It’s setting up the perfect conditions: warm waters and lower wind shear as well as more moisture in the atmosphere in coastal regions. The average hurricane intensification rate has increased significantly along the Atlantic Coast of the US since 1979, according to research Balaguru and colleagues published in 2022. The probability of a tropical storm rapidly intensifying has also increased between 1982 and 2017, a trend that’s expected to continue as the planet warms.

“This has been happening. Whether it is the third most or the 10th most [rapidly intensifying storm], it shouldn’t matter,” Balaguru says. “[Milton] fits this pattern of storms intensifying more rapidly with climate change. I think that is something for people to think about, especially when it happens like this, close to landfall.”

The storm is forecast to move near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula today before approaching Florida on Wednesday. The storm surge could cause up to six feet of flooding along parts of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Florida’s Tampa Bay could potentially see a catastrophic 12-foot storm surge. Milton could meet stronger wind shear before hitting Florida’s Gulf Coast, weakening the storm. But it’s still projected to make landfall as a major hurricane “with life-threatening hazards.”

Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on September 26th as a Category 4 storm, bringing a 15-foot storm surge to the area before tearing a devastating path across southeastern states up to North Carolina and leveling entire communities along the way. Milton could prove to be even more dangerous to Florida, in particular, as it barrels toward more populated regions along the state’s western coast.