2 hours ago
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Amazon’s first-quarter EPS of $2.78 crushed estimates of $1.62, with net sales at $181.52B. NVIDIA’s odds of being the largest company by market cap on April 30 sit at 99.8% YES.
Market reaction
The immediate market reaction has been muted given the short timeframe. With only one day left, odds for NVIDIA being the largest by April 30 remain unchanged from 24 hours ago. Amazon’s earnings beat could affect longer-term contracts, though. The June 30 market is at 87% YES.
Why it matters
Amazon’s quarter puts pressure on NVIDIA’s longer-term market cap position. The June 30 market dropped from 92% to 91% YES over the past 24 hours, a sign of shifting trader sentiment. With 62 days until resolution, any sustained rally in Amazon’s stock could push these odds lower.
What to watch
The largest single move from the Amazon earnings news was a modest 1-point spike in the June 30 market. The current order book depth shows it takes over $13,000 to move the price by 5 percentage points, meaning the market is thick enough to absorb small trades without much slippage.
Amazon guided second-quarter net sales between $194.0B and $199.0B, well above estimates. At 9¢, a NO share in the June 30 market pays $1 if NVIDIA loses its market cap lead, an 11.1x return. For that bet to make sense, traders would need to expect Amazon’s momentum to close the gap over the next two months.
Watch for NVIDIA’s next earnings call, particularly AI demand signals and supply chain updates. Amazon’s stock performance and next quarterly guidance will also feed directly into these contracts.
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Largest Company End Of April 738
| April 30 | 99.8% | — | — | View market → |
Gc Hit Jun 2026
| June 30 | 87% | — | — | View market → |
Largest Company End Of May 167
| May 31 | 93.9% | — | — | View market → |
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