Altseason Is Not Here Yet, Analysts Warn: Here’s Why

TLDR: 

• Altcoins remain below previous peaks, despite sharp gains in select assets.
• Analysts cite low retail presence and technical hurdles limiting broader participation.
• Alt/BTC ratios and TOTAL2 metrics show weak altcoin momentum versus Bitcoin.
• Historical data points to potential altseason timing from June to December 2025

The price actions of different altcoins have sparked discussions about whether altseason has truly begun. Several prominent analysts are examining current market conditions with skepticism. 

VirtualBacon, who has over 198k followers on X, suggests that recent gains represent isolated movements rather than comprehensive altseason activity. The analyst points to limited retail participation and high asset valuations as key concerns. 

Meanwhile, expert Niels analyzes market data indicating that altcoins remain below previous cycle peaks. These observations highlight the complexity of identifying genuine altseason conditions versus short-term speculative activity.

Market Data Shows Limited Altcoin Participation

Current cryptocurrency movements show uneven distribution across different asset categories.

Hyperliquid has gained 4x in value while Solana memecoins experience significant activity. However, VirtualBacon notes that most altcoins remain “dead flat” with Bitcoin dominance continuing to climb.

Altseason? Not so fast.

Hyperliquid is flying. Crypto Twitter is euphoric. Memecoins are booming.

But something feels off.

Here’s why I’m cautious and what I’m doing instead 🧵👇

— VirtualBacon (@VirtualBacon0x) May 27, 2025

Data analysis reveals that TOTAL2/BTC ratios are trending downward, and Alt/BTC pairs show weakness. These metrics suggest that the current environment differs significantly from 2021 conditions when retail investors drove broad-based altcoin gains.

“This isn’t retail,” VirtualBacon explains, describing current trading as “Twitter-native, PVP-driven onchain cycle” focused on sophisticated traders rather than mainstream adoption.

Technical barriers prevent casual investors from participating in many trending cryptocurrencies. VirtualBacon describes the complex process required to purchase HYPE tokens, which involves using Arbitrum USDC, bridging to Hyperliquid, VPN usage, and navigating multiple blockchain networks.

The HYPE token trades at a $37 billion fully diluted valuation with approximately $700 million in annual revenue. This represents a price-to-earnings ratio near 100, compared to BNB’s ratio of roughly 24 with $4 billion in token burns.

Major exchanges haven’t listed many trending tokens, creating additional friction for retail investors. VirtualBacon suggests that if experienced traders face difficulties accessing these assets, casual retail participation remains unlikely.

Historical Altseason Analysis Points to Future Timing

On May 24, crypto market analyst Web3Niels offered another view of current altcoin positioning. He referenced the TOTAL3 chart, which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum, noting that it still trades below its 2021 highs. According to him, this suggests that altcoins remain in a downtrend.

Altseason Chart, Source: X

Historical altseason patterns show specific timeframes for major cycles. The 2021 altseason occurred from January to May, while 2017’s cycle ran from July to January. Based on these patterns, Niels suggests a potential altseason window from June through December 2025.

However, community responses show mixed reactions to timing predictions. Some users express skepticism about cycle forecasting, preferring dollar-cost averaging strategies over attempting to time market movements.