All Eyes on U.S. CPI: Will Inflation Data Trigger a Crypto Rally or Market Crash?

TLDR:

• U.S. CPI report releases today after shutdown delays, with economists forecasting a 3.1% annual increase.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled staff to finalize data critical for Social Security adjustments.
• Analysts warn a CPI reading above 3.1% could pressure crypto prices as Fed hawkishness resurfaces.
• A lower-than-expected print might trigger fresh liquidity and drive a short-term crypto market rally.

Markets are on edge this Friday as the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report prepares to land. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the long-delayed inflation data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to increase 0.3% for the month, also at 3.1% annually. Crypto traders are watching closely, as the numbers could dictate whether risk assets rally or retreat.

CPI Data Release Despite Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown that began October 1 had initially delayed the data. 

According to a statement, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled a limited number of staff to finalize the report. This release is an exception, as the September CPI is needed to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.

Without it, benefit updates for next year would have been at risk of delay.

Economist and trader MartyParty shared on X that most of the CPI data collection took place before the shutdown. That means, despite the disruption, the numbers are expected to remain accurate and comprehensive. Other key economic releases, like jobs data, remain frozen until the government reopens.

The delayed CPI report now arrives at a tense moment, with investors waiting to gauge inflation’s next move.

Crypto Price Reactions Hang on Inflation Print

Analysts across X have mapped out possible outcomes. Crypto commentator Ash Crypto wrote that a CPI above 3.1% would likely pressure risk assets. 

Such a print would be the highest since June 2024 and could push the Federal Reserve toward a tougher stance. That would weigh on Bitcoin and equities, as higher inflation could dampen rate-cut expectations.

If CPI lands at 3.1%, markets may still view it cautiously. It would suggest a 0.2% monthly gain, equivalent to an annualized 2.4% inflation rate, above the Fed’s 2% goal. However, a softer reading below 3.1% could ignite optimism.

Ash Crypto noted that a weaker figure might boost risk assets, increase liquidity, and fuel crypto’s next upswing. Traders now stand ready for volatility as the clock ticks toward the release.

The result could either tighten liquidity or open the door to renewed bullish momentum. Whatever the outcome, today’s CPI print is shaping up as a make-or-break moment for crypto prices.