It may not have happened until the sequel, but Michael Corleone ordering Fredo's assassination started with a key scene in 1972's original The Godfather movie. Killing Fredo in The Godfather Part II's ending is arguably the defining moment of Michael Corleone's entire story. With the Corleone family riding high under Michael's leadership, the gullible Fredo betrays his brother to Hyman Roth, providing information that the villain uses to orchestrate an attempted hit at Michael's home. Michael eventually identifies Fredo as the leak, and orders Al Neri to end the middle Corleone brother's life while fishing.
In fairness, Fredo was never completely aware of his role in betraying Michael. Fredo almost certainly knew he was working against his family's interests, but was blinded by the promise of a cut from Roth. Fredo did not, however, realize his subterfuge would result in Michael, Kay, and their children almost being shot. Regardless, Fredo chooses to hide his betrayal of Michael, and this deception - combined with the initial act of treachery - seals his fate. Strangely, however, it could be said that the wheels of Fredo's demise were in motion long beforehand.
Michael's Confrontation With Moe Greene In The Godfather Was The First Step Toward Fredo's Death In Part II
Michael Sowed Seeds He Would Reap In The Godfather Part II
Following Vito's retirement and Sonny's death, Michael takes charge of the Corleone family, usurping elder brother Fredo. This in itself doesn't appear to annoy Fredo as much as one might expect - initially, at least. John Cazale's character seems resigned to the fact that he isn't Godfather material, and happily numbs his emotional pain with daiquiris and female company.
Fredo is hindering the Corleone family more than helping with his Vegas activities.
What does irk Fredo, however, is how younger brother Michael treats him after becoming the Corleone family don, and nowhere is this more apparent than during the confrontation with Moe Greene in Las Vegas. At this point in The Godfather, Fredo is schmoozing Greene on Michael's behalf, greasing the wheels for a planned Vegas expansion. Upon his arrival, Michael immediately antagonizes Greene by offering to buy him out, foregoing any pretense of respect or courtesy during the impromptu negotiations.
The Godfather trilogy details the complex dealings of the crime dynasty of the Corleone family, with three amazing villains to complete the story.
The Godfather implies that Fredo is hindering the Corleone family more than helping with his Vegas activities, but by storming into Moe Greene's hotel and stealing his host's thunder, Michael completely undermines whatever Fredo believed he was achieving. Then Michael makes everything worse. As Fredo chastises Michael for his aggressive approach with Greene, the younger sibling turns to his elder and utters the immortal line, "Don't ever take sides with anyone against the family again." By design, the threat comes across like a parent talking down to a naughty child, and that tone is not lost on Fredo.
How The Godfather's Moe Greene Scene Leads To Fredo's Betrayal & Death
Without The Moe Greene Incident, Fredo's Death Could've Been Averted
Above just disrespecting Moe Greene and being spoken to like a child, the thing that enrages Fredo the most in The Godfather is having his younger brother protect him. Michael's abrasiveness in Las Vegas is largely influenced by the knowledge that Moe Greene has been assaulting Fredo in public - an act that will eventually contribute to Greene's death during The Godfather's ending. Knocking Greene down a peg and warning his brother never to side against the family is, in part, Michael's way of trying to protect Fredo from being taken advantage of.
Roth manipulatively offers Fredo everything he desires.
Being passed over for the role of don was one thing, but The Godfather's Moe Greene scene is what really sets Fredo on the path to betrayal. By being professionally disrespectful to Greene, Michael quietly tells Fredo that his help winning the hotelier over was never needed. By advising Fredo not to side with Greene, Michael takes the position of a parent rather than a younger brother. By speaking out in Fredo's defense, Michael implies his older sibling is unable to take care of himself.
These factors combine to give Fredo an inferiority complex that Hyman Roth takes full advantage of in The Godfather Part II. Roth manipulatively offers Fredo everything he desires: a piece of business separate from Michael, a way of humiliating Michael just like Michael humiliated him in Las Vegas, and an opportunity to prove his wily instincts have been overlooked by the Corleone family for too long.
Fredo Might Have Lived If Michael Had Handled The Moe Greene Situation Differently
A More Experienced Michael Corleone Might Have Handled Fredo Better
In The Godfather Part II, Fredo unleashes a bitter rant about Michael being chosen as don before him, confirming his deep emotional hurt, despite appearing to accept the situation in the first movie. At the same time, missing out on the Corleone family's top job is, by itself, clearly not enough to push Fredo toward betraying Michael. The decision was Vito's, for a start, and Fredo's early days in Las Vegas are happy enough. It is only after the Moe Greene debacle that resentment begins seeping from Fredo's liqour-soaked pores.
By simply treating his brother with respect, Michael could have tempered Fredo's anger.
One has to wonder whether behaving differently during the first movie would let Michael avert Fredo's betrayal in The Godfather Part II. Rather than sending Fredo off to Vegas to get him out of the way, Michael could have installed his older brother as an important caporegime within the Corleone inner circle, allowing him to exercise a degree of autonomy over certain aspects of their business. And instead of scolding Fredo like a naughty child, Michael could have acknowledged his brother's seniority and treated him more like Tom Hagen - a trusted voice and confidante.
With Moe Greene, Michael could have played nice to the hotel tycoon's face, then secretly ordered his assassination and seized his assets thereafter, similar to how the newly-crowned don bides his time before killing Carlo Rizzi. By simply treating his brother with respect, Michael could have tempered Fredo's anger over not becoming don. The Godfather Part II all but confirms this when Fredo reveals what Hyman Roth promised him in return for betraying Michael: "He said there was somethin' in it for me. On my own..."
This admission proves Fredo never wanted to oust his brother and seize the Corleone family business for himself. He would have been content with being treated as an equal and given genuine responsibilities.
Michael Chose To Protect The Corleone Family's Interests Over Protecting His Family
Michael Was (Almost) The Architect Of His Own Downfall
Michael, of course, has a clear reason for not treating Fredo more gently, and as is typical for The Godfather, it comes down to prioritizing business over personal matters. Michael could assign Fredo more responsibility within the family, but since Fredo is universally recognized as unreliable and unintelligent, doing so would create a weak link in the Corleone hierarchy. Michael could speak to Fredo as an equal, but that would risk his reputation as the undisputed leader of the empire Vito left behind. Michael could have Moe Greene killed in secret, but Las Vegas needs to realize the Corleones were not to be trifled with.
Of the many sins Michael Corleone commits in the Godfather movies, the worst is so bad that even Marlon Brando's Vito wouldn't have done it.
Michael sacrifices the feelings and ego of his older brother to put the Corleone family in a stronger position. While it's unlikely that Vito, as Fredo's father, would have done the same, Michael's immense rise between The Godfather and The Godfather Part II proves that sidelining Fredo has the desired effect. And yet, as much as Michael's cold logic and lack of empathy yields financial rewards, it nearly costs him everything. If Michael looks at the bigger picture in The Godfather, he might realize that pacifying Fredo is a smarter strategy than earning his brother's resentment.
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