Paramount Pictures
It was yet another major showdown of the blockbusters at the box office this past weekend, as Paramount's "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" went toe-to-toe with Disney's big prequel "Mufasa: The Lion King." Not that the third entry in a successful franchise should necessarily be considered a full-fledged underdog here, but for various reasons, it might have seemed like "Mufasa" had the edge here. That's now how things played out, though.
Instead, director Jeff Fowler's "Sonic 3" triumphed with an estimated $62 million domestic opening weekend, which was good enough for the number one spot and essentially right in line with industry expectations for the "Sonic" threequel heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, Disney's "Lion King" prequel, which hails from Oscar-winning director Barry Jenkins, didn't fare nearly as well. It pulled in just $35 million, landing at number two on the charts. For context, 2019's "The Lion King" opened to more than $190 million domestically before eventually amassing over $1.6 billion worldwide, becoming literally one of the highest-grossing movies of all time. Needless to say, we're off to a slower start here.
"Sonic 3" doesn't begin its international rollout until this week, but "Mufasa" did pull in $87.2 million overseas, which made it the number one movie worldwide this past weekend. Even so, a $122.2 million global start isn't enough for a movie of this size and Disney is now going to have to rely on unusually long legs and a bigger than predicted turnout outside of the U.S. from this point on.
So, what went wrong with "Mufasa" here? How was "Sonic 3" able to triumph so handily in what should have been a much closer showdown? We're going to look at the biggest reasons why this high-profile box office duel went down the way it did. Let's get into it.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 had critics on its side
Paramount Pictures
It's not that critics are the be all, end all for a movie's performance at the box office. But given that video game movies were, for so very long, generally terrible, it matters here. In the case of "Sonic the Hedgehog 3," Paramount and Fowler managed to cook up another winner, with reviews only getting stronger as the franchise goes on. /Film's BJ Colangelo praised the third "Sonic" film as "bigger, bolder, and better" in her own writeup, and it seems audiences agreed.
On the flip side, "Mufasa" found itself in similar territory to the 2019 "Lion King." Critics were mixed on the film, while audiences appeared to like it more. But the response from critics and audiences hasn't been resounding enough to motivate families to seek this one out. Case in point: "Sonic 3" carries an A CinemaScore, while "Mufasa" earned an A-. Don't get me wrong, that's still very good, but that minus matters when we're talking about a weekend in which moviegoers have abundant options to choose from. It certainly mattered here.
Mufasa suffered more from stiff competition
Disney
Speaking of abundant options, it seems that Disney suffered pretty badly from direct competition this past weekend. "Mufasa" was pitching itself to the very same prospective ticket buyers who were also being targeted by the likes of "Wicked" ($13.5 million fifth weekend) and even Disney's own "Moana 2" ($13.1 million fourth weekend). Yes, it's true that "Sonic 3" is also going for the same family crowd, but "Moana 2" in particular is literally the same target demographic for a "Lion King" movie. Not that Disney planned it that way; "Moana 2" going from a Disney+ streaming series to a theatrical film was a great move, but it's also one that might have come at the expense of "Mufasa," at least to some degree.
Another thing to consider is that audiences haven't been starved for family-friendly fare the way they were during the early part of the pandemic era. We recently had the likes of "Red One" and even Lionsgate's sneaky hit "The Best Christmas Pageant Ever" there to fill that void (not to mention "The Wild Robot" and its ridiculously great run). The point is, without great reviews or super strong word-of-mouth, "Mufasa" was going to be fighting an uphill battle on such a crowded weekend.
Paramount was more effective at selling Sonic 3 to fans
Paramount Pictures
On the flip side, Paramount did a downright stellar job keeping the good vibes going with "Sonic the Hedgehog 3." While the third installment didn't open quite as high as the record-breaking "Sonic the Hedgehog 2" ($72 million) did in 2022, that $62 million keeps the franchise on the right side of the financial line in light of its budget, which is said to be in the $110 million range. That number suggests that Paramount did its job well, and that job was selling this third "Sonic" film to fans. The studio had to make people understand that this wasn't just more of the same. What's the reason to rush out to a theater and see the third "Sonic" movie in the span of less than five years?
The trailers, in particular, effectively sold Keanu Reeves' Shadow the Hedgehog as a compelling villain. Even for more casual fans out there who weren't aware of Shadow from the "Sonic" video games, the "Sonic 3" marketing made him both feel important and look cool. That also made it clear the film would have higher stakes, which was enough to keep audiences interested. That's easier said than done, too, as evidenced by what happened with "Mufasa." Being part of a franchise doesn't automatically guarantee a win, even if Hollywood sometimes seems to think that it does.
Sonic 3 had a much smaller budget than Mufasa
Disney
One thing that needs to be addressed here is the costs of both of these movies. On the one hand, "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" was in the $110 million range before marketing. That's a slight increase from the $90 million Paramount spent on the first two "Sonic" films, but that's still reasonable for a franchise on its third installment. Meanwhile, "Mufasa" was markedly more expensive, coming in at the $200 million range before a pricey global marketing spend. And yet, here we are with the far less expensive movie on top.
It's not exactly a David and Goliath story; we're talking about two huge movies in equally well-known franchises. Disney's original 1994 animated "Lion King" was a heralded, box office smash while the Sonic character had been a staple in pop culture for decades long before he started dominating the big screen. Still, it's telling that the reasonably budgeted film aimed at its core audience won the day here. Not that what a movie costs impacts ticket sales directly, but it does affect the bar for success. In this case, Paramount cleared that bar while Disney tripped right over it.
Time was on Sonic's side, not Mufasa's
Disney
To whatever degree it mattered is tough to quantify, but there is something to be said for getting a sequel made in a timely manner. 2019's "The Lion King" was both a billion dollar hit and one of the biggest parts of Disney's most lucrative year ever, trailing only "Avengers: Endgame" ($2.79 billion at the global box office). When success happens on that level, a followup is always going to happen. In this case, Disney went with a prequel. Unfortunately, these movies take a long time to make and, in 2020, the pandemic shut down Hollywood for months on end. That, coupled with last year's SAG and WGA strikes, led to a huge delay with this film.
Had "Mufasa" hit theaters two years ago, who knows? Maybe the interest would have been there. Maybe it would have benefited from not going up directly against another much-anticipated blockbuster sequel. Though not always the case, sequels that take more than a few years to arrive can suffer as audiences will move on and/or lose interest. $1.6 billion suggests an awful lot of interest.
On the flip side, Paramount released the first "Sonic" in 2020 just weeks before the pandemic shut down theaters, and it was a big success. Even with the production difficulties, it got "Sonic 2" in theaters by summer 2022. Again, even with the strike delays, "Sonic 3" followed roughly two and a half years later. The studio has made these films like clockwork and has built a loyal audience as a result. There's something to be said for that.
There are lots of great movies to look forward to in 2025, but almost none of them are coming our way in January. Because of that, both "Sonic 3" and "Mufasa" can potentially leg it out well into the new year. Who knows? Maybe "Mufasa" will find its audience as the weeks roll on. Either way, one has to imagine the five-year gap was a factor here. How big of a factor? That's impossible to quantify.
"Sonic the Hedgehog 3" and "Mufasa: The Lion King" are now playing in theaters.
English (US) ·