2025 Oscar Predictions: The Golden Globes Just Changed the Game Big Time for These Two Actors

The Super Bowl of cinema is upon us. Welcome to Collider's FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2025 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts. Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.

Update: January 6, 2025

The first major awards show of 2025 is in the books, begging the question: Will it matter? Do the Golden Globes impact Oscar nominations, and beyond? Yes and no — but mainly no.

The group that votes for the Golden Globes is made up of roughly 300 journalists from around the world. They do not overlap with the folks voting for the Oscars, a far larger voting body. Given Emilia Pérez went into the ceremony as the most nominated film, it wasn't much of a surprise that it went home the biggest winner. It received 10 nominations and left with four wins. The second most nominated film, The Brutalist, snagged three big prizes: Best Director, and, in the drama sector, Best Motion Picture, and Best Performance by a Male Actor for Adrien Brody's work in the film. Does that mean Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist are the clear Oscar frontrunners over Wicked, which went home nearly empty-handed given its win came in the questionable category, Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, and Anora, which did literally leave without a single win? Leaving a glamorous and highly publicized event as the big winner certainly doesn't hurt, but it also doesn't carry the weight of other precursors on the horizon, like the SAG nominations, for example, which will be announced on January 8.

So how do the Golden Globes matter? They're an opportunity to campaign in front of a large audience, and I suspect that opportunity just made a huge difference for two people in particular, Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres. Both are in the running for Best Actress nominations at the Oscars, but, when it comes to ranking likely nominees, both often fall into the #5 spot, or just beyond it. Their Golden Globe wins, however, could change that. In Torres' case, while I'm Still Here is well-received by those who've seen it, there's been concern that not enough people have watched the film to nudge her into this category. By winning this Golden Globe, she likely just pushed I'm Still Here to the top of a lot of must-watch lists.

In Moore's case, she had an ideal one-two punch last night. Not only did she win Best Female Actor in a Musical or Comedy over Cynthia Erivo, Karla Sofía Gascón and Mikey Madison, all of whom were thought to have better chances at Oscar nominations and wins. But then, Moore got up on that stage and made the absolute most of her time in the spotlight. She gave an impassioned speech that tapped into the subject matter of her film, The Substance, and also tied into her personal journey as an actor in Hollywood. There were quite a few great speeches delivered last night, but hers will likely make the strongest last impression. Emilia Pérez may have ended the Globes as the most decorated film, but I think Moore went home the biggest winner of the evening, possibly even cementing her Oscar nomination.

BEST PICTURE

Current Frontrunner: Wicked

Also in Contention: I'm Still Here, A Real Pain, September 5

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Frontrunner: Sean Baker

Also in Contention: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys

BEST ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Mikey Madison

Also in Contention: Angelina Jolie for Maria, Nicole Kidman for Babygirl

BEST ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Adrien Brody

Also in Contention: Daniel Craig for Queer, Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain, Hugh Grant for Heretic

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Ariana Grande

Also in Contention: Selena Gomez for Emilia Pérez, Felicity Jones for The Brutalist, Joan Chen for Dìdi

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin

Also in Contention: Stanley Tucci for Conclave, Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, Peter Sarsgaard for September 5, John Magaro for September 5, Mark Eydelshteyn for Anora, Mark Eydelshteyn for Anora

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Current Frontrunner: The Wild Robot

Also in Contention: Transformers One, Chicken for Linda!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: Anora

Also in Contention: All We Imagine as Light, Hard Truths, Challengers, His Three Daughters

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: Conclave

Also in Contention: A Complete Unknown, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Dune: Part Two