20,000 seafarers stranded as US-Iran talks stall over Strait of Hormuz closure

## Market Snapshot

Strait of Hormuz Traffic by May: 3.2% YES, slightly up from 3% yesterday, down from 4% a week ago. Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit: 72.5% YES, down from 76% yesterday, up from 70% a week ago. Bab el-Mandeb Strait Closure: 8.3% YES, up from 6% yesterday, down from 16% a week ago.

## Key Takeaways

– Market pricing suggests that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is consistent with a low likelihood of normal traffic resuming by May 15. – The situation reflects significant disruption, suggesting the market sees a reduced chance of 20 ship transits on any day by May 31. – Indirect US-Iran talks indicate potential for easing tensions but have not yet led to any finalized agreements.

## Article Body

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded approximately 20,000 seafarers in the Gulf, as the United States and Iran engage in indirect negotiations for a peace deal. The strategic waterway remains blocked amid ongoing hostilities, with Iran imposing restrictions and the US enforcing a naval blockade. Recent negotiations facilitated by US envoys and Iranian officials in Islamabad and Geneva aim to reach a memorandum of understanding, addressing ceasefires, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and reopening the strait. Despite high tensions, the negotiations have yet to produce a definitive agreement, maintaining uncertainty in the region.

## Market Interpretation

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz appears to be highly impactful on the market, with current pricing supportive of a NO outcome for normal traffic resumption by May 15. The market indicates a moderate impact from the potential for 20 ship transits on any day by May 31, reflecting continued uncertainty. Market participants seem to interpret the lack of a finalized peace agreement as inconsistent with immediate de-escalation.

## What to Watch

Watch for developments in US-Iran negotiations closely, as any breakthrough could shift the current pricing landscape. Key actors include US envoys and Iranian officials participating in talks in Islamabad and Geneva. Additionally, watch for any announcements from maritime authorities or major shipping companies regarding changes in transit status or security advisories in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Strait of hormuz ship transit bearish

72% FLAT